Brace yourself. Affordability of housing continues to deteriorate, and latest reports indicate the situation could get worse before it gets better, causing a huge hit to the Canadian economy.

Far fewer Canadian cities meet the traditional affordability benchmark where housing costs are less than 30 per cent of household income, recent data from prop-tech company Zoocasa revealed.

Reports indicate that median mortgage payments now consume about 46 per cent of household income in Canada versus 34.2 per cent in the U.S.

The cost of constructing a residential building in Canada has also increased 58 per cent since 2020 and could rise even further, thanks to U.S. tariffs, according to federal briefing materials.

One survey showed that in 2024 a Canadian home cost about 14 times the average disposable income, compared to nine times in the U.S. For comparison, as of mid-2025, the median home price in Los Angeles was 12.5 times the median household income. New York was 9.8 times.

In late 2023, the percentage of median household income needed to cover ownership costs was 84.1 per cent in Toronto, far exceeding the national average.

The increasing cost of housing is hurting the economy and making it difficult for people to find affordable places to live. Many are now leaving cities like Toronto. A poll by Environics Analytics for CTV News reports that last year 35,000 households left the Greater Toronto Area.

Dire situation could get worse

A report released recently by RESCON indicates that the already-dire housing situation could get worse in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), as housing starts in the first nine months of 2025 were down substantially and industry job losses continue to grow.

The report looked at 34 municipalities and found that housing starts were down 34 per cent in those municipalities over the first three quarters of 2025, relative to the January-to-September periods in 2021-24. Condo apartment starts were down 51 per cent in 2025 relative to the same earlier time periods.

The analysis estimated that the reduction in housing starts over the first nine months of this year translates into 35,377 fewer person-years of employment.

The figures in the report are an eye-opener as they indicate we are trending in the wrong direction.

Projects are being shelved which will have a trickle-down effect on the economy. Sales have been stopped on more than 3,200 new units between 2020 and 2025. The cost of building is just too high. Only 54 new condos were sold in Toronto in October, down from 145 in October 2024.

An editorial in The Globe & Mail noted that in five years, the construction of new homes in the country’s hottest markets is projected to slow to near-zero. So, we will have less construction, fewer homes, and fewer jobs – all at a time when the country needs more housing.

Industry is critical to economy

This will all have a disastrous effect on our economy, as construction accounted for 7.5 per cent of the Canadian GDP in 2023.

It’s a recipe for disaster. The residential construction industry is critical to the Canadian economy.

A new report from Concordia University’s John Molson School of Business indicates that improving housing affordability could deliver a boost to local economies, not just help families.

In an illustrative model for Toronto, the report concluded that a $3-billion housing-supply incentive program could generate an estimated $672 million in recurring annual tax inflows, implying a four-to-five-year fiscal payback – even without accounting for further positive multiplier effects.

As noted by Erkan Yönder, associate professor of real estate and finance at Concordia, housing affordability is not just a social issue, it’s really an economic one too.

“High housing costs affect the entire economy, everything from family finances to business productivity and municipal budgets,” he said in a statement. “With the growing pressures in the Canadian economy, it is important to do everything we can.”

When builders are working, taxes are flowing into government coffers. Workers are earning wages which boosts the economy. And the new homes provide somewhere for Canadians to live.

Governments must pull out all the stops to get the industry back to work. The cost of building needs to come down, namely through further reducing the exorbitant taxes, fees and levies on new homes. Presently, 36 per cent of the cost of a new home is attributable to the tax burden.

Builders need to be able to build homes that people can afford. Our economy depends on it.

Calgary’s housing market has been showing a great deal of variability this year. By September, citywide conditions had settled into balance, but several neighbourhood clusters kept prices close to last year’s levels, while some others showed modest gains.

Calgary’s Split Market

By late summer, it became apparent that Calgary wasn’t moving as a single market. The composite benchmark sat at $572,800, down 4.0% year-over-year (y/y), with 6,916 active listings and 4.02 months of supply, suggesting a balanced environment without the declines seen in some other Canadian markets. However, results diverged sharply by housing type.

Detached homes slipped just 1% y/y to $749,900. Semi-detached homes actually rose 1% y/y to $684,800, making them the city’s best-performing category. Row homes fell 5% y/y to $437,100, while apartments saw the largest drop at -6% y/y to $322,900, with supply stretching to roughly five months. Those differences help explain which neighbourhoods held up best and which lost ground.

According to top Calgary realtor Jesse Davies, “Neighbourhoods dominated by detached and semi-detached naturally followed the trends of the two strongest segments, so their overall benchmarks tended to decline or showed year-to-date growth, although key exceptions in high-demand areas do exist. On the other hand, communities with large concentrations of apartment or row housing mirrored the weaker segments.”

Areas where semi-detached infill is the dominant form, especially in the inner city, benefited from the only segment still posting year-over-year gains, which helped keep local benchmarks steadier than the citywide picture suggests. Communities built around a larger base of row homes or condos, however, reflected the softer performance of those categories. Supply dynamics reinforced the divide. Apartment inventory sat near five months in September, while detached and semi-detached remained considerably tighter. Neighbourhoods with a greater share of those tighter low-rise segments consistently showed firmer values, even as broader conditions cooled.

Neighbourhood performance in 2025 also followed the basic fundamentals that shape demand in any market. Areas with established schools, good transit, and mature retail or services continued to draw steady buyer interest, which helped them absorb rising listings with less price impact.

Jesse Davies confirms, “These underlying fundamentals continue to work together with the property-type dynamics to shape which parts of Calgary held their value best through September.”

Where These Patterns Showed Up in the City

Against that mixed backdrop, a few parts of the city stood out for holding their values more firmly than the rest.

North West: Calgary’s Steady Performer

If price stability defines success, the North West was Calgary’s steadiest district in September. The total-residential benchmark of $633,200 was only -2.1% y/y, half the citywide decline.

As Jesse Davies notes, “The resilience in the north west reflects the district’s fundamentals. It’s dominated by low-rise, family-oriented streets rather than large condo clusters, attracting buyers motivated by schools, LRT access, and community continuity.”

Because detached and semi-detached homes, Calgary’s strongest categories, form the backbone of its housing stock, the district had a built-in advantage. Neighbourhoods like Varsity, Brentwood, Dalhousie, Edgemont, Hamptons, Citadel, Tuscany, Royal Oak, and Rocky Ridge all benefited from that composition. Without a glut of apartment supply, they avoided the price pressure seen elsewhere and posted the smallest year-over-year pullbacks in the city.

West: Equity Strength and Limited Substitutes

West Calgary ranked a close second, posting a total residential benchmark of $707,300, with sub-neighbourhoods performing well. Here, the story was less about product type and more about buyer profile and supply scarcity.

Neighbourhoods such as Aspen Woods, Springbank Hill, West Springs, Signal Hill, Strathcona Park, Patterson, and Cougar Ridge are dominated by move-up detached and semi-detached homes. Buyers in these areas are typically equity-rich and shopping within a narrow geography, driven by specific schools, commutes, and amenities. Even as listings rose citywide, there were few comparable substitutes west of Sarcee Trail, so competition stayed firm, and prices held close to flat.

West Calgary was able to avoid the oversupply seen in the North East and East districts, where the steepest declines occurred, coinciding with inventory growing fastest.

City Centre: The Semi-Detached Advantage

At first glance, the City Centre looks like it softened, with a September benchmark of $576,800 (-4.4% y/y). However, on a year-to-date basis, it actually leads Calgary in price growth, with a rise of over 4% compared to the same period in 2024.

Davies suggests that the reason for this is semi-detached homes. “This property type posted the strongest YTD gains across the city, driven largely by the City Centre’s infill corridors.”

Areas such as Altadore, Killarney/Glengarry, South Calgary, Richmond, Hillhurst/West Hillhurst, Mount Pleasant, Capitol Hill, Renfrew, and Bridgeland/Riverside saw steady demand for duplex-style homes, even as nearby condo towers softened.

In September, semi-detached prices averaged $684,800, up about 1% y/y, while apartments averaged $322,900, down 6% y/y, with supply reaching its highest level since 2021. That split explains why inner-city duplex streets remained hot even when the district average dipped; its strongest segment is still growing.

South and South East: Average Results but with Local Standouts

The South districts landed near mid-pack overall, but results vary widely by neighbourhood. Detached-heavy communities such as Lake Bonavista, Haysboro, Canyon Meadows, Oakridge, McKenzie Towne, Cranston, Douglasdale/Glen, Mahogany, and Auburn Bay largely mirrored the city’s detached trend, with only shallow declines.

Areas built around newer condo nodes, however, followed the apartment curve, showing greater supply, slower absorption, and deeper price adjustments.

Where the Market Cooled

At the lower end of the market, the North East recorded the sharpest year-over-year drop at 7.9%, with a benchmark of $485,000, while the East followed with a 6.5% decline and a benchmark of $409,000. Additionally, the North East posted the city’s largest condo drop at -10% y/y, for a particular cooling in this segment.

Both districts added significant inventory through late summer, and both lean heavily toward the apartment segment, which faced five months of supply and the steepest price corrections.

Assessing Current Comparables

Calgary’s “hot” neighbourhoods in 2025 were about price retention in a normalizing market, with strong trends related to housing type. These price growth patterns have consequences for those looking to buy, sell, or invest.

It is important to be aware of nuances. As Davies notes, “For sellers in stronger low-rise pockets, for example, the trends support firmer pricing and more measured adjustments, rather than assuming the whole city has dropped by 4%; their reality is closer to the detached and semi-detached trend than to the headline composite.” In areas where apartments and newer rows dominate and supply has expanded more quickly, sellers are operating in a softer environment, where sharper pricing and cleaner terms often matter more than holding out for last year’s numbers.

For buyers and investors, the same split changes how an opportunity looks. In communities anchored by established amenities and a large share of detached or semi-detached homes, the room for bargain hunting is limited, according to Davies, and the decision often comes down to paying fair value for a stable asset in a stable micro-market. In locations with heavier exposure to multi-family stock, wider gaps between list and sale prices can open up, but those come with different risks around future absorption and further adjustments.

In 2025, the practical takeaway is that price growth and price protection have followed housing form and key fundamentals more than citywide headlines.

To navigate this terrain, it helps to work with a local specialist. Calgary-born and raised, Jesse Davies brings over 16 years of experience and has consistently ranked among Calgary’s top-producing agents. He and his team are noted for their market knowledge across the city and for translating complex benchmark and inventory data into actionable insight for buyers, sellers, and investors.

The federal and Ontario governments have stepped up to the plate by cutting the sales taxes on new homes for first-time buyers. It took them a while to get there, but to their credit, they did.

Once legislation is passed, a first-time buyer who purchases a new home up to $1 million will no longer have to pay the five-per-cent GST or eight-per-cent HST. It will be retroactive to May 27. For homes purchased between $1 and $1.5 million, taxes will be reduced on a sliding scale.

The move is significant as first-time buyers account for roughly 35 per cent of new home purchases. On a $1-million home, first-time buyers will now save $130,000 on the purchase price.

It’s also a positive for our industry. Exorbitant taxes, fees and levies are crippling the residential construction industry, stymying the build of new homes and condos, and driving up housing costs.

The tax burden presently accounts for 36 per cent of the cost of a new home. The best way to improve housing affordability, then, is to lower taxation.

Already, I have received reports that the tax cut is moving the needle on housing, as there is more traffic reported at sales centres. RESCON will be keeping a close eye on this to gauge the outcome.

Can you imagine what would happen if the sales tax was eliminated for all buyers of new homes – not just first-timers? It would move the needle significantly and spur more housing construction.

Benefits of cuts outweigh costs

A rebate of the provincial portion of the HST for first-time homebuyers on newly built homes valued up to $1 million is projected to cost the government $35 million in 2025-26, $190 million in 2026-27, and $245 million in 2027-28. The projections were based on housing data and economic policies.

However, the benefits far outweigh the costs.

The policy will result in more housing being built, more direct construction and spinoff jobs, a healthier economy, and more property tax revenue for governments once the homes are built and occupied.

Everybody wins.

According to the Missing Middle Initiative (MMI), governments are bleeding billions of dollars in revenue from the current housing decline. The organization estimated that governments could lose more than $6 billion in tax revenue from declining owner-occupied housing construction in the GTA.

The MMI ran the numbers using CHMC data and found that owner-occupied starts generated an eventual $10.8 billion for governments in 2023, but with starts lower that figure will drop to $4.8 billion annually between 2025 and 2027. The feds will lose nearly $2.4 billion, the provinces more than $1.9 billion and municipalities $1.7 billion.

The MMI found that the housing slump will cost the federal and provincial governments $900 million a year in lost HST revenue in the GTA alone.

The point here is that governments are losing huge dollars from the lack of new housing being built. They might as well cut the sales taxes as it will boost the industry and lead to more growth.

As a result of fewer homes being built, they’re getting less in the way of funds from the HST, so what’s the risk?

The upside is tremendous.

Tax burden must be reduced further

Presently, the housing supply and affordability situation is dire. Ontario indicated in its spring budget that it expected to see 71,800 homes built this year, but the projection is now 64,300. Projections for the next few years are also low, with 70,200 expected in 2026, 79,600 in 2027 and 83,700 in 2028.

Industry employment has also taken a major hit. In the City of Toronto, for example, industry employment declined by an estimated 10,209 jobs in the first six months of 2025.

To correct course, the tax burden on new homes must come down further. We appreciate that the senior levels of government have taken action to cut sales taxes for first-time buyers, but the initiative must be expanded, at least temporarily, to buyers of all new homes. Taxes are simply too high.

The issue of exorbitant development charges (DCs) levied by municipalities must also be tackled. It was a key recommendation of the Ontario Housing Supply Task Force Report back in 2022. However, it’s been nearly four years now, and the problem has not yet been addressed.

In Toronto today, developers pay nearly $140,000 in municipal taxes on a single-family home. DCs for smaller units range from $60,000 for a bachelor apartment to more than $80,000 for a two-bedroom unit. The charges are passed on to the homebuyer in the form of higher prices.

Clearly, the industry can not continue to operate under the yoke of such excessive taxes. We’re in the worst housing crisis in a generation. The cost of housing must be reduced. More action is critical.

The housing market in Norfolk County, Ontario, showed renewed energy in September 2025, as both sales and new listings moved upward, while prices held steady. 

Sales Strengthen

Home sales in Norfolk County climbed sharply, rising 23.3% compared to September 2024 and marking the strongest month since May and the best September since 2021. Activity also sat more than 22% above the five-year average for September, underscoring stronger-than-usual demand heading into fall. Year-to-date sales remained virtually unchanged from 2024, showing that the September rebound helped stabilize overall annual performance.

Rise in Listings

Sellers returned to the market in large numbers, with new listings up 28.4% year-over-year and exceeding the five-year average by more than one-third. The September total represented the highest number of new listings ever recorded for the month. Active inventory rose 11% from last year and now sits roughly 49% above the five-year average, reflecting a deep pool of available homes for buyers to choose from.

Even with this influx, months of inventory declined slightly from 6.0 to 5.4, suggesting that stronger demand helped absorb some of the additional supply. The market remains looser than historical norms, and still above the long-term average of 3.5 months, but it has begun to edge toward balance.

Prices Hold Steady Despite More Supply

Home prices in Norfolk showed modest downward adjustment compared to a year earlier. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark stood at $560,200, down 4.3% year-over-year. Single-family homes followed closely with a 4.2% dip, while townhouse and row units saw a larger 9.7% decline. The average sale price for all homes was $628,948, a 2.2% reduction from September 2024. However, that figure remains 24% higher than five years ago and more than 130% higher than a decade ago, highlighting how far the market has advanced over the long term.

Market Conditions

The sales-to-new-listings ratio in September settled at roughly 44%, reflecting continued buyer advantage but showing gradual tightening from earlier in the year. Compared with 2024, the ratio and months-of-inventory figures suggest a market in transition that is still buyer-friendly but showing signs of stabilization. Drew Hemsley, Cornerstone’s spokesperson for the area, summarized the trend as “a market that continues to favour buyers but is slowly inching toward more balanced conditions”.

Norfolk County’s September 2025 data portrays a market regaining momentum. Sales volumes are up sharply, inventory remains high but manageable, and prices have softened only slightly at a time when many parts of Canada have seen declines. The overall tone is one of gradual normalization, as buyers retain leverage, but the renewed pace of transactions and consistent pricing hint at an approaching equilibrium as fall progresses.

Within Port Moody’s most anticipated master-planned community, Umbra at Portwood brings together architecture, nature, and community in a way that feels both effortless and intentional. Developed by EDGAR Development and designed by Acton Ostry Architects, Umbra blends Scandinavian simplicity with the relaxed elegance of the West Coast, creating a calm, contemporary space.

A Green-Centric Community in the Heart of Port Moody

Umbra is part of Portwood, a 23-acre sustainable neighbourhood designed to harmonize with its natural surroundings. Just minutes from downtown Port Moody, the community provides a rare opportunity to enjoy close access to nature without losing touch with urban convenience.

Over 70% of Portwood is dedicated to green space, ensuring a lush, tranquil environment for residents. The master plan includes rehabilitated environmentally sensitive areas, such as restored streams and urban forests, as well as a 1.5-kilometre nature trail that weaves through the community. This trail connects art installations, active play zones, and serene walking paths, forming a natural rhythm to daily life.

Residents are close to two new neighbourhood parks, playgrounds, and multi-use trails that encourage walking, cycling, and outdoor recreation. Instead of traditional paved streets, Portwood’s design integrates accessible pathways that enhance connectivity while maintaining a pedestrian-first environment.

Urban Convenience and Local Character

Portwood is a complete neighbourhood. With approximately 14,000 square feet of retail space, a café, and a grocery store, daily essentials are only steps away. Families benefit from a 12,000-square-foot daycare centre, while recreational amenities like a multi-sport court, water play area, and community plaza encourage spontaneous gatherings and social interaction.

Commuters will find Portwood exceptionally well-connected. The community is near Moody Centre, Burquitlam, and Inlet Stations, offering direct access to the SkyTrain’s Millennium Line and the West Coast Express. Whether heading to Vancouver for work or exploring Port Moody’s celebrated Brewer’s Row, residents are always within reach of where they want to be.

Prioritized Sustainability

Umbra is a six-storey collection of residences and townhomes designed with sustainability and comfort in mind. Built to Step Code 3, these homes exceed standard building code requirements for energy efficiency through superior insulation, airtight construction, and advanced low-carbon heating and cooling systems, which help reduce energy use, lower utility costs, and maintain consistent indoor comfort throughout the year. Residents also have access to five shared e-bikes, a bike repair room, and EV-ready parking in every stall. The thoughtful design and energy-conscious features create homes that are both modern and environmentally responsible.

Amenities for Quality Living

The building is organized around a central garden courtyard, a green, open-air space that encourages residents to relax, socialize, and enjoy a connection to nature without leaving the community. 

The outdoor amenities extend across 18,000 square feet and include spaces for outdoor dining, BBQs, and communal games, as well as lush decks ideal for relaxing or stargazing. Indoors, Umbra offers over 2,700 square feet of shared lounge areas, including a children’s playroom, coworking lounge, and a 1,000-square-foot fitness facility. Every detail supports a balanced lifestyle, whether it’s unwinding, working, or socializing.

The community also includes a car wash, dog wash, and secure storage options, reflecting the property’s commitment to a high standard of living.

Sophisticated Interiors with a Sense of Ease

Umbra’s interiors, crafted by award-winning designer Cristina Oberti, offer beauty, comfort, and quality. Each home features air conditioning powered by a variable refrigerant flow system for efficient, low-carbon climate control. Expansive windows and lofty ceilings fill the suites with light, while laminate wood flooring and oversized entry doors create a sense of modern elegance.

Homeowners can choose between light and dark interior palettes, each accentuated by Italian cabinetry from Armony Cucine, quartz countertops, and Fulgor Milano integrated appliances. Kitchens are designed for both beauty and functionality, with ample storage, sleek finishes, and well-placed lighting that enhances the atmosphere.

Bathrooms continue the theme of refinement, featuring floating vanities, porcelain tile floors, and Kohler matte-black fixtures. Ensuite designs add smart storage and spa-inspired details such as Acritec soaker tubs and modern shower wands.

Security and Flexibility

Residents at Umbra enjoy peace of mind through secure key-fob access, video surveillance, and controlled elevator entry. Each home includes one parking stall, one storage locker, and one bike space, with additional parking available for select homes. Rentals are permitted, providing flexibility for investors and homeowners alike.

Residences and Townhomes for Varied Needs

Umbra offers a mix of residences and townhomes ranging from 557 to 1,669 square feet, with layouts that adapt to different stages of life. Rentals are permitted. 

Residences include one- and two-bedroom configurations, most with flex rooms that can serve as offices or creative spaces. Upper-level homes feature vaulted ceilings, while outdoor decks and balconies extend living space into the open air.

The townhomes, ranging from three bedrooms plus flex, are designed with growing families in mind. These homes offer private entries, concrete construction on the lower levels, and spacious patios with gas outlets, making these spaces ideal for entertaining or relaxing outdoors.

Developed by EDGAR

Behind Umbra stands EDGAR Development, a company known for creating meaningful, future-focused communities since 2009. Their guiding principle of “Build to Thrive” reflects a dedication to quality, longevity, and environmental stewardship. With a portfolio that includes The Duke, The Hendrix, and The Clifton in Vancouver, as well as The MacLaren in Edmonton, EDGAR has established itself as a leader in urban design and thoughtful placemaking.

Every EDGAR project is rooted in a deep respect for its surroundings, ensuring that the architecture complements the neighbourhood rather than overpowers it. Umbra continues this tradition, merging architecture, landscape, and community in a seamless, enduring way.

A Contemporary, Connected Community

Umbra at Portwood delivers a combination of sustainable design, thoughtful amenities, and flexible, high-quality homes. With occupancy expected in January 2027 and an average projected ROI of 22.36%*, it offers both lifestyle and long-term value, providing residents with a modern West Coast community that integrates nature, convenience, and comfort.

*The financials/returns provided are taken from Investor’s Playbook; these are forecasts only and are based on historical assumptions and are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered or relied upon as advice by Playbook Media Corp. and its affiliates (collectively, “Playbook”) and should also not be considered as a substitute for professional advice or recommendation on real estate investing. Playbook Media Corp. and its affiliates (collectively, “Playbook”) shall not accept any responsibility or liability of whatsoever nature for or in connection with any use of or reliance on the forecasts and/or historical assumptions for this or any real estate development project. Nothing here is or shall be considered as any recommendation or offer or solicitation to offer of any investment product.

As global temperatures rise and heat waves become more frequent, real estate investors face a changing climate that affects both risk and return. Buildings designed for past weather conditions are already showing higher energy costs, more frequent maintenance issues, and lower tenant comfort. In contrast, properties built with heat-resilient design and modern cooling technologies can reduce long-term expenses, maintain asset value, and attract stronger tenant demand. 

Passive Strategies That Reduce Cooling Demand

A building’s envelope, or the layer that protects the interior, including its walls, windows, and roof, is the first defence against extreme heat. High-performance insulation, airtight construction, and continuous thermal barriers prevent outdoor heat from entering and keep cool air inside. Passive design features such as building orientation, deep overhangs, and cross-ventilation can lower indoor temperatures naturally, reducing the need for mechanical cooling. Materials with thermal mass, such as concrete or brick, absorb heat during the day and release it at night, keeping interior temperatures more stable. These features not only cut energy use but also extend the lifespan of HVAC systems, reducing both capital and operating costs over time.

Glazing, Shading, and Façade Innovation

Windows are a common weak point in heat management, but newer technologies have transformed their performance. Modern glazing with low solar heat gain coefficients and spectrally selective coatings lets in light while keeping out unwanted heat. Double- and triple-pane windows offer better insulation and noise reduction. Exterior shading systems such as louvres, brise-soleil, or even strategically planted vegetation block sunlight before it reaches the glass. Automated façades and responsive shading systems can adjust in real time to changing weather, improving comfort and efficiency. For investors, these improvements lead to happier tenants, fewer temperature complaints, and greater long-term appeal.

Efficient Cooling Systems and Decarbonization

Traditional air conditioning is energy-intensive and increasingly costly as fuel prices fluctuate. Newer systems like variable refrigerant flow (VRF) technology, high-efficiency heat pumps, and dedicated outdoor air systems separate ventilation from cooling to achieve higher performance. Radiant cooling, which uses chilled ceilings or floors, can maintain comfort at warmer air temperatures while using less energy. Pairing these systems with on-site renewables, such as solar panels, and electrification strategies reduces dependency on fossil fuels and aligns assets with tightening emissions standards. The result is lower energy bills, smaller carbon footprints, and compliance with evolving building performance regulations.

Cool Roofs, Green Roofs, and Smart Materials

The roof plays a major role in heat management. Cool roof coatings reflect sunlight, reducing the roof’s surface temperature and the amount of heat transferred indoors. Green roofs add an insulating layer, absorb rainwater, and cool the surrounding air through evapotranspiration, while also extending the lifespan of the roof membrane. More advanced technologies, such as phase-change materials embedded in walls or ceilings, absorb excess heat during peak hours and release it later, helping maintain stable indoor temperatures. These design choices improve comfort and protect the building structure, while lowering long-term maintenance costs.

Smart Controls and Occupant Comfort

Modern heat-resilient buildings rely on intelligent systems to stay efficient. Building automation systems monitor temperature, humidity, and occupancy to adjust cooling and ventilation in real time. Demand-response systems can temporarily lower power use during peak grid periods without sacrificing comfort. 

When tenants have access to local controls and clear communication about how temperature is managed, satisfaction improves and complaints drop. Additionally, smart controls lead to lower operating costs, earlier detection of maintenance issues, and stronger documentation of energy performance for lenders and potential buyers.

Urban-Scale Site Design and Microclimate

A building’s surroundings also influence its heat resilience. While different locations can make this difficult, site planning that incorporates trees, reflective pavements, and water features helps cool the local environment and reduces the urban heat island effect. Strategic building orientation and spacing can improve natural airflow and support passive cooling methods. These design elements enhance both livability and the broader community appeal.

The Business Case for Heat-Resilient Investment

Investing in heat-resilient design may add modest upfront cost, but it pays off through lower operating expenses, reduced equipment wear, and better tenant retention. Buildings that use less energy are less exposed to volatile utility rates, while efficient cooling systems and durable materials minimize unplanned maintenance. Many insurers and lenders now recognize resilience features and may offer better terms for properties that demonstrate reduced climate risk. When selling, many of these features may increase desirability for a quicker sale. Over time, these advantages help investors secure stable income streams and higher resale values.

Design Choices That Protect Value

As temperatures climb, resilience will separate assets that endure from those that decline. Investing in heat-ready design future-proofs portfolios against the realities of a changing climate and positioning for strength in the markets ahead.

The Government of Ontario has announced a proposal to rebate the full 8% provincial portion of the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) on new homes purchased by first-time buyers, marking one of the most significant housing affordability measures in the province in years. Announced on October 28, 2025, the initiative aims to reduce the cost burden facing those entering the housing market for the first time. The measure will apply to new homes priced up to one million dollars, while homes priced between one and one and a half million dollars will see a gradual phase-out of the rebate.

This proposal aligns directly with the federal government’s earlier decision to eliminate the 5% Goods and Services Tax (GST) on new homes valued up to one million dollars for first-time buyers, as outlined by the Department of Finance Canada. Together, the combined federal and provincial measures could reduce the overall tax burden on qualifying purchases by as much as 13%, producing total savings of approximately $130,000 on a one-million-dollar home.

The provincial government has framed this as part of its broader strategy to make housing more attainable for Ontarians and to encourage the construction of new homes, as well as to keep more young people and families in Ontario rather than losing them to more affordable provinces. 

Policy Context and Implications

The structure of the rebate is consistent with the federal model introduced earlier in 2025, ensuring consistent eligibility criteria and minimizing administrative complexity for buyers and builders. To qualify, the purchaser must be a first-time homebuyer, and the home must be newly built, intended to serve as the buyer’s principal residence. The rebate is applied to the 8% provincial component of the HST, while the federal GST component is addressed under Ottawa’s program.

The combined effect of these measures represents a substantial reduction in tax exposure on new-home purchases at entry-level price points. In practical terms, this means that a buyer purchasing a newly built home for one million dollars could save roughly $80,000 from the provincial rebate alone, in addition to the $50,000 in savings from the federal rebate. For many first-time buyers facing high borrowing costs, this could significantly improve purchasing power and expand the pool of those able to qualify for financing.

The measure also carries broader macroeconomic implications. Ontario’s new-home market has been under pressure throughout 2025, with sales activity subdued and housing starts at multi-decade lows. By targeting the first-time buyer segment, the government is effectively trying to reintroduce momentum at the base of the market, where activity can have the strongest multiplier effect on both supply chains and employment. 

Industry Response

The Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON) has endorsed the announcement, describing it as both timely and necessary. In an official statement, RESCON President Richard Lyall commended Premier Doug Ford, Municipal Affairs and Housing Minister Rob Flack, and Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy for introducing the proposal, calling it an important step in addressing the province’s housing affordability crisis. Lyall noted that first-time buyers make up roughly 35% of all new-home purchasers but have been “particularly hard hit” by record housing-cost-to-income ratios that have moved beyond historic norms.

Lyall also emphasized that the timing of the policy is critical, given the “grim” outlook for the residential construction sector. Housing starts in Toronto, he said, are approaching a thirty-year low, with new-home sales effectively stalled. He argued that the provincial move, especially when coupled with the federal rebate, will provide tangible relief to both buyers and builders. According to RESCON’s analysis, taxes, fees, and levies currently make up about 36% of the total cost of a new home in Ontario. Reducing that tax load, Lyall said, is the most direct way to improve affordability and to encourage the construction of more housing.

At a recent RESCON-sponsored housing summit, industry professionals identified taxation as one of the most significant barriers to building new homes; this rebate is a step toward lowering that barrier, although RESCON maintains that deeper reforms are still required. Lyall stated that the organization will monitor the impact of the measure and continue advocating for further structural changes to address the regulatory and fiscal constraints that continue to limit new supply.

Potential Impacts

The government’s goal is to stimulate both demand and supply by reducing taxes for those most likely to purchase newly built homes, thus enabling projects that might otherwise have stalled. For first-time buyers, the initiative directly lowers the upfront cost of ownership, while for builders, it may revive sales activity in price ranges that have been hardest hit by higher borrowing costs and economic uncertainty.

Ultimately, the success of the measure will depend on its implementation details and market response. If buyers and builders both benefit as intended, Ontario could see renewed construction starts and stronger buyer confidence heading into 2026. However, as RESCON has cautioned, tax relief alone cannot overcome the layered challenges facing the province’s housing system. The organization suggests it must form part of a coordinated set of policies, combining financial incentives, regulatory streamlining, and infrastructure planning, to restore balance between supply and demand in Ontario’s housing market.

On October 23, 2025, the Ontario government unveiled a new package of proposed measures under draft legislation, the Fighting Delays, Building Faster Act. The proposal forms part of the province’s ongoing effort to address housing supply pressures by making it faster and less costly to bring projects from approval to construction.

If passed, the legislation would introduce more than 40 separate initiatives across housing, infrastructure, transportation, planning, and rental regulation systems. These include overhauling municipal approval processes, revising the way development charges are calculated, removing certain site-level environmental requirements, and making procedural changes to the Landlord and Tenant Board.

The proposals are still before the legislature and would require enabling regulations and municipal coordination before taking effect. The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing has indicated that consultation with industry and municipal stakeholders will take place over the coming months. Some measures, especially those tied to cost and building efficiency, such as the removal of green development standards and updates to the Building Code, are positioned to be implemented by the spring 2026 construction season, contingent on passage and regulatory readiness.

Reducing Development-Related Cost Uncertainty

The province is seeking to standardize how development charges (DCs) are calculated and applied. DCs are fees used to fund infrastructure required for new housing, but calculation formulas and cost attributions vary between municipalities. Consultations have raised concerns about land costs being used in ways that inflate DC rates, and about disagreements over which party is responsible for financing supporting infrastructure.

Proposed amendments would prevent land acquisition costs from being factored into DC calculations in ways that raise charges beyond what is tied to servicing needs.  It would also provide clearer provincial guidance on which infrastructure elements are the responsibility of municipalities vs. developers. More transparent reporting and easier public access to DC data would be required.

The intent is to create more predictability in total development cost structures and reduce disputes that delay project timelines. 

Changes Affecting Building Requirements and Site-Level Standards

Since 2009, Toronto has required green roofs or alternative roof systems for most new buildings above 2,000 square metres, a mandate not applied elsewhere in Ontario. The new proposal would prohibit Toronto from requiring green roofsprohibit the City of Toronto from requiring green roofs or other alternative roof surfaces, bringing its requirements in line with the rest of the province.

Additionally, municipalities often impose “green development standards” at the lot level, such as features related to landscaping, stormwater management, energy systems, or other enhanced environmental performance elements. These requirements are typically enforced through site plan control and vary significantly by municipality, which can add both cost and design complexity.

The province intends to remove the ability to require these enhanced site-level environmental standards outside the building envelope, with the stated goal of lowering build costs and reducing inconsistencies from one jurisdiction to another. The government indicated these measures are targeted for implementation by the spring 2026 building season, pending passage and regulation. 

Building Code Modernization

Ontario plans to conduct a section-by-section review of the Building Code with the aim of removing outdated provisions and reducing unnecessary regulatory complexity. The focus is on reducing administrative burden and design friction while maintaining safety and performance requirements. 

Rental Housing System Changes

The province has also proposed reforms to the Landlord and Tenant Board (LTB) intended to reduce case backlogs and provide faster resolution of disputes. While the number of adjudicators has increased and average hearing wait times have shortened, the government notes that delays still deter rental supply.

One of the main changes would remove the current ability for tenants to introduce new issues at a rent arrears hearing without giving prior notice. Under the existing rules, tenants can raise additional claims or counterarguments on the day of the hearing if they can justify why the issue was not submitted earlier. This practice often leads to adjournments and months-long delays. The proposed amendment would require all such issues to be disclosed in advance, ensuring hearings proceed without unexpected procedural interruptions.

Another change would limit the ability to raise new claims in rent arrears cases unless at least half of the outstanding rent has been paid. The government describes this as a measure to discourage strategic non-payment while preserving fairness for tenants who demonstrate good faith by addressing a portion of the arrears before the hearing. This would require further regulation and consultation before being implemented.

The time frame to request a review of an LTB decision would also be shortened from the current 30 days to 15 days, except in specific circumstances. The goal is to reduce the period that disputes remain unresolved and minimize financial uncertainty for both sides.

A new regulatory framework would also be introduced to define what constitutes “persistent late payment” of rent. Although the Residential Tenancies Act currently allows eviction for habitual late payment, it does not clearly specify what frequency or duration meets that standard. Setting consistent criteria through regulation would create more uniform outcomes across cases. Details would be determined through future consultation and regulation.

Finally, the province intends to simplify and revise the standard notice forms used by the LTB, including the N4 notice to end a tenancy for non-payment. The updated forms would use clearer language to outline rights, obligations, and timelines, making them easier to understand for both landlords and tenants and reducing procedural errors that can delay proceedings.

Extreme weather events, including floods, hurricanes, wildfires, heat waves, and severe storms, are increasing. They have become increasingly influential forces shaping where people live, how homes are built, and how real estate markets function. As a result, their influence is increasingly visible in property values, construction trends, insurance markets, and buyer behaviour across both residential and commercial sectors.

Shifting Buyer Preferences and Migration

Investors and home buyers are now making decisions with risk exposure in mind. In areas repeatedly affected by floods, wildfires, or hurricanes, demand is softening as more people seek properties in lower-risk zones. Prospective homeowners are asking pointed questions about floodplain maps, wildfire history, and local climate projections before committing to a purchase. This has fuelled the “climate migration” trend, where people move inland, toward higher elevations, or to regions with milder and more stable climates. In Canada and the United States alike, these safer areas are seeing a rise in demand, reshaping both pricing and development patterns.

Insurance Costs and Financial Risk

Insurance has emerged as one of the most immediate and tangible consequences of extreme weather on real estate. 

As damage from climate-related disasters rises, insurers have increased premiums, tightened coverage terms, or, in some regions, withdrawn entirely. In high-risk areas, some homeowners are forced to rely on last-resort or government-backed insurance programs, which can dramatically increase ongoing ownership costs. Properties that are difficult to insure often see their market value decline, as buyers and lenders price in these risks. 

Lenders are becoming more cautious as well, demanding higher underwriting standards or avoiding properties in flood- and fire-prone zones altogether. The financial strain caused by rising insurance costs is beginning to reshape what types of properties are marketable and where financing remains accessible.

Building Codes, Regulation, and Resilient Design

Municipalities and regional governments are responding to weather-related risks by tightening building codes and requiring resilience features in new developments. 

Fire-resistant materials, elevated foundations, wind-resistant roofs, and advanced drainage systems are increasingly being written into local codes, particularly in high-risk regions. 

For existing properties, the demand for resilience upgrades is growing rapidly. Homeowners are investing in storm shutters, backup generators, reinforced insulation, and energy-efficient systems that can handle prolonged heat or cold. While these improvements add to upfront costs, they are becoming standard expectations among modern buyers who want long-term stability and reduced risk exposure.

Market Segmentation

Climate risk is creating a clear divide in the real estate market. Regions with lower exposure to extreme weather events are gaining value, while high-risk areas are beginning to lag behind. 

Properties in flood plains, coastal zones facing sea-level rise, and regions prone to wildfires are seeing slower appreciation or even price declines. On the other hand, inland and elevated areas with stable climates are attracting migration and investment, driving up local prices. 

One study in Italy found that repeated flood exposure led to price drops of up to 4% in some neighbourhoods; while this is not a large number, it still illustrates the growing economic penalty of climate risk. Over time, as risk data becomes more transparent, the pricing gap between vulnerable and resilient areas may widen further.

Short-Term Market Behaviour and Rental Demand

Extreme weather also affects market dynamics in the short term. Heavy rains, snowstorms, and heat waves can disrupt buyer activity, delaying showings, appraisals, and closings. Homes may sit longer on the market during these conditions, and sales cycles can stretch as weather events interfere with transaction logistics. After large-scale disasters such as floods or wildfires, displaced homeowners often enter nearby rental markets, driving up demand and short-term rents in safer areas. These temporary shocks can ripple outward, affecting affordability and availability even in neighbouring regions.

The Bigger Picture: Financial, Urban, and Investment Impacts

The financial implications of climate-related risks extend well beyond individual homeowners. Properties in exposed regions may be overvalued if climate risk is not accurately priced, creating long-term vulnerabilities for lenders, investors, and insurance companies. Rising insurance burdens and declining values could also lead to higher default rates in the most at-risk zones. Governments and urban planners are under increasing pressure to adapt infrastructure, investing in flood control systems, wildfire prevention, and stormwater management, while updating zoning regulations to restrict new construction in vulnerable areas. Investors, meanwhile, are beginning to incorporate climate data into due diligence processes, favouring properties and regions that demonstrate resilience and long-term viability.

Challenges and Considerations

While the trend toward climate-conscious real estate is accelerating, it comes with complexities. Public perception of climate risk often lags behind the data, meaning that many buyers and sellers are still slow to price risk accurately. Differences in regulation and insurance across jurisdictions also create uneven market responses. Furthermore, rising costs associated with relocation, insurance, and retrofitting create an equity issue: wealthier households can move or adapt, while lower-income owners may be trapped in depreciating, high-risk properties. The uncertainty inherent in climate modelling adds another layer of difficulty, as projections can vary widely by region and event type.

Buyers, sellers, and policymakers alike must approach the market with due diligence, understanding local hazards, insurance realities, and the true cost of resilience. As extreme weather events become more common, real estate markets adapt.

The Waterloo Region housing market in September 2025 reflected a continued move toward balanced conditions, shaped by moderating sales activity and rising supply. Broader economic factors have contributed to a slower pace of transactions compared to both last year and longer-term seasonal norms, giving buyers more time and choice than they have had in previous years. While prices remain below 2024 levels, month-to-month pricing trends indicate some stabilization as the fall market unfolds

Prices

Average sale prices across the region softened compared to the previous year but rose slightly from August, indicating pricing stability at the start of the fall season. The average sale price for all residential properties in September was $753,162, down 4.7% year-over-year (y/y) but up 3.2% month-over-month. Detached properties sold for an average of $858,872, a decrease of 5.9% from last year and up 1.4% from August. Townhouses recorded an average price of $606,871, marking a 1.7% increase year-over-year and 1.8% month-over-month (m/m). Apartment-style condominiums averaged $442,086, a decline of 8.9% annually but an increase of 2.0% from the prior month. Semi-detached homes sold for an average of $621,026, down 5.1% year-over-year and up 0.5% month-over-month.

The Composite Benchmark Price in Kitchener-Waterloo was $673,100 in September, down 7.6% from last year and 0.3% lower than in August. Townhouses saw the sharpest benchmark adjustment, with a 9% year-over-year decrease to $548,300.

Sales

The number of homes sold across the Waterloo Region through the MLS® System in September declined by 4.7% from the same month in 2024, with a 25% decrease compared to the region’s ten-year average for September. The decline in sales has eased the competitive environment that characterized recent years, particularly during periods of constrained supply. With sales volumes lower and inventory higher than last year, buyers generally have more time to make purchase decisions.

The breakdown of activity across property types aligns with the broader moderation. Detached homes remained the most active category with 325 sales, 4.1% fewer than in September 2024. Townhouses saw a 5.2% decline y/y, while condominium apartments recorded a 13.6% annual decrease. Semi-detached homes were the only category to see an annual uptick, rising 6.3%. 

Inventory Growth and Time on Market

Inventory levels expanded significantly compared to both last year and long-term norms, which has played a central role in balancing market conditions. A total of 1,469 new listings were added in September, representing an 11% increase year-over-year and nearly one-third higher than the ten-year historical average. Active listings reached 2,094 by the end of the month, marking a 22.2% annual increase and standing nearly 80% above typical September levels seen over the past decade.

The increase in supply translated into a 4.0-month inventory level across all property types. Condominiums demonstrated the largest supply buffer with 7.3 months of inventory, followed by townhouses at 4.8 months and detached homes at 3.3 months. 

Regional Resilience

Despite the moderation in pricing and sales, the foundations of the Waterloo Region market remain strong. The region continues to benefit from a diversified economic base, including its established technology sector, higher-education institutions, and skilled labour pool. These long-term fundamentals support steady housing demand even when short-term conditions shift. 

The shift toward balance reflects higher supply and more moderate demand, rather than a clear downturn. With inventory elevated, conditions have steadied, resulting in a slower and more measured market pace than during the tighter periods seen in recent years.